Verizon’s Over-The-Top Video Ambitions

Earlier this week, Verizon and Coinstar announced the formation of a joint venture that will combine Redbox DVD/Blu-ray rentals with video on-demand streaming and download services from Verizon. There were few details provided about the service which is scheduled to be launched in the second half of 2012. The JV provides Verizon with an opportunity to sell video services outside of its operating territory and possibly create some interesting mobile broadband packaging with its wireless service. It also enables Verizon to leverage its Digital Media Services platform that was announced in 2011.  For Redbox, it greatly expands its brand name and potential revenue opportunities.  The JV hopes to differentiate itself from other OTT providers through both its physical and digital content.  Although the JV is choosing to enter an ever increasingly crowded OTT space, its well known national brands should help it gain market share relatively quickly.  But it is its potential to act as a virtual MSO that makes this a service most interesting to watch in the coming months.

The JV is being formed between Redbox and Verizon Ventures IV LLC, with Verizon holding a 65 percent ownership share and Redbox holding a 35 percent ownership share at the outset.  According to information from the LLC Operating agreement, the JV was formed “for the primary purpose of developing, launching, marketing and operating a  nationwide “over-the-top” video distribution service that provides consumers with access to video programming content, including linear content, delivered via broadband networks to video-enabled viewing devices and offering rental of physical DVDs/Blu-ray from DVD rental.

In addition, there are licensing arrangements under which Redbox will make available to the JV, DVD/Blu-ray rental rights from Redbox kiosks, while Verizon will make available certain rights to video programming content delivered via broadband networks.

According to Verizon, the yet unnamed service will operate under a subscription-based pricing model, but will not give customers the option of choosing between a separate streaming or DVD/Blu-Ray subscription package like Netflix offers today. 

Why This Announcement Is Important

For Verizon and Redbox it offers an additional revenue stream.  For Verizon, it will be able to market a national on-demand video service.  Additionally, it provides opportunities for Verizon to drive additional traffic across it network which will benefit both its wholesale and wireless operations.

From a competitive perspective – the target is most definitely Netflix.  But its impact will likely be far greater as the addition of a well known provider of services to the OTT market will put considerable pressure on all Pay-TV operators (Cable MSOs, DTH and IPTV), potentially accelerating the practice of “cord-cutting”. Although it is not expected that the JV will provide linear and live TV at its initial launch; the fact that is could act as a virtual MSO is game-changing to the entire industry.

Like all OTT providers, the JV will be able to take advantage of the increasing speeds of broadband services and the proliferation of internet enable devices (game stations, Blu-ray players, Television, etc.).  Additionally, the JV will be able to leverage the 37 million active Redbox subscribers who rented 684 million DVDs at over 35,000 kiosks at 29,000 locations during 2011.

We came up with 7 key reasons why this service will be different from its competition, but that info is for clients only!

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Verizon Wireline Services Rebound Nicely in 4Q11

Verizon announced its 4Q11 earnings this am and provided an update on its wireline status.  For the quarter, Verizon had a net growth of 98K broadband lines (+201k FiOS and -103k DSL).  FiOS TV net additions were 194k, while its FiOS Digital Voice experienced its strongest growth at +424k.

Some highlights:

  • Total FiOS Internet customers are 4.817 million
  • Total FiOS Video customers are 4.137 million
  • Total FiOS Digital voice customers are 1.884 million
  • Total FiOS RGUs are 10.874 million
  • FiOS ARPU is $148/month and FiOS services now contribute 61% of consumer revenues
  • 16.5 million premises passed at the end of 2001, up 900K from 2010
  • FiOS Internet penetration is 35.5% (31.9% in 2010), FiOS Video penetration is 31.5% (28.0% in 2010)

Quarterly net additions by service type are down below: (source: broadbandtrends, Verizon)

Source:  broadbandtrends, Verizon

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The Fixed versus Mobile Broadband Conundrum

2012 will prove to be a pivotal year for fixed broadband demand.  In some countries, especially those with very robust mobile networks, demand for fixed broadband has started to decline and in those countries where the fixed infrastructure was never reliable (such as India and most of Africa), demand for fixed broadband has never met the expected demand.  Combine that with an ever-increasing number of operators rolling out LTE (49 commercial LTE networks as of Jan 5, 2012, per the GSA) and consumer’s appetite for mobility will definitely put some significant pressure on fixed broadband operators.

I am not going to make subscriber comparisons between fixed and mobile, because it is comparing apples to oranges.  A fixed broadband subscription is typically associated with households, while mobile subscriptions are individually based.  It is very rare (even in high penetration markets such as South Korea and Singapore) for a household to have more than one fixed broadband subscription – yet it is plausible that a single household with a family of four – could have four or more mobile subscriptions.

Let’s face it – mobile is sexy and fixed is not.  But the allure is not in the network – it is all in the devices. To own the latest and greatest device is a status symbol, much like owning designer apparel was in the 80s’ and 90s’.  Unfortunately – this is not something that providers of fixed broadband solutions are ever going to match.  Yes, you can design an esthetically pleasing home gateway (Free’s Revolution) or streaming video server (Boxee, Roku), and even Set-Top Boxes, but its not likely to be something that a consumer is going to brag about or show off.

But they do like to talk about their speed and their quality. 

So how does a fixed broadband operator compete with the mobile broadband avalanche?  Provide a network that a consumer simply cannot live without.   How do you do this?  By making sure that not only do fixed broadband speeds match and/or exceed mobile broadband competition, but that applications and services (video, gaming, e-health, e-education, e-business, bandwidth guarantees, quality of service, etc.) remain unique to fixed broadband. And that is where technologies such as DSL vectoring, DOCSIS 3.0 and architectures such as FTTx come into play. 

So here are a few reminders as to why Fixed Broadband can (and will) remain relevant over the longer term:

  • It is that fixed broadband connected to a Wi-Fi device that enables Multi-Screen TV services
  • It is that fixed broadband connected to your home gateway that enables multi-room DVR services
  • It is that fixed broadband connected to your Wi-Fi router that enables Apple iCloud and iTunes Match
  • It is that fixed broadband connected directly (or via Wi-Fi) to your Smart TV, Blu Ray Player, Gaming Console and OTT box that allows streaming video services
  • It is that fixed broadband connection that allows multi-player gaming and XBox Live services
  • It is that fixed broadband network that allows one person to take an on-line class, another to stream video and another to download music – simultaneously
  • It is that fixed broadband network that has electronically transferred a critical medical document, x-Ray or Cat scan for evaluation and consultation
  • It is that fixed broadband network that enables you to have a lower cost VoIP telephone service
  • It is that fixed broadband network that allows you to use your Skype service
  • It is that fixed broadband network that enables you to have that Facetime conversation with you grandmother, you parents, your children, your friends
  • It is that fixed broadband network that connects your Wi-Fi device to everything else in your home and your community
  • It is that fixed broadband network that enable mobile connectivity
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Adtran Acquires NSN’s Broadband Access Biz – A Few Thoughts

Early Monday, December 12, 2011, Adtran announced its acquisition of Nokia Siemens Networks Fixed Broadband Access business.  The purchase price was not disclosed, but Adtran commented that it was ”not material” and confirmed on its conference call that it was less then they paid for Blue Socket ($23.8M). 

The deal should close at the end of April 2012 and expected annual revenue from the acquisition is $140M to $180M.  The main product acquired is its IP DSLAM platform, but there are also other access platforms such as MSANs as well as significant Intellectual Property that is part of the deal. Based on our own market share data for NSN, the annual run rate for just its DSL platforms is approximately $120M, while overall revenue for the unit is within range of Adtran’s expected revenues.

Nokia Siemens Networks announced a few weeks ago their plans to focus on mobile broadband and “adapt, exit or maintain” its fixed network business.  (See blog post for additional information).  So far, it has unloaded its WiMax business to NewNet Communications Technologies and now its Fixed Broadband Access to Adtran.

The acquisition helps to accelerates Adtran’s plan to expand globally and provides incumbency into a number of Tier 1 operators, including Deutsche Telekom, BSNL, Bezeq, Saudi Telecom, SK Broadband (Harano) among others.  The bulk of NSN’s access business is derived from the EMEA region, although it does have a presence in other regions.

While global expansion if great, it also comes with significantly lower margins than Adtran currently enjoys with its own product line.  According to the conference call, margins on the NSN products are sub 30%, in constrast to the 57% margin on Adtran products.  Adtran expects to increase the margins on the NSN equipment through supply chain optimization and cost reductions.  This is Adtran’s forte, so I have every confidence that it will be able to make significantly improvements in this area over time.

On a global basis, NSN enjoys a #4 position in DSL market share, behind the likes of Huawei, ZTE and Alcatel-Lucent.  In EMEA it is ranked #3 behind Huawei and ALU.    The combination will certainly propel Adtran into a global top 5 and an EMEA top 3, but will have little to no impact on the players ahead of them many of them ship high volumes into China as well as other Tier 1 operators within EMEA and CALA.

From an intellectual property perspective, NSN has been very active on Next Generation Optical Access (NGOA) as well as Phantom Mode DSL  which offers speeds of 825Mbps over 400 meters of bonded copper and 750Mbps over 500 meters.  The NGOA solutions uses a single optical fiber to bring broadband to up to 1000 homes at symmetrical speeds of  1Gbps per household, at distances of up to 100 km from the central exchange (office).

It is unclear if this technology is part of the acquisition, as it appears to plan a key role it is metro transport solutions and falls under the “Liquid Transport” category.  If Adtran gets this IP – then this is a major upside.  If it does not, then that is unfortunate for Adtran.

Undoubtely, this acquisition will help Adtran rapidly build a global reputation and will certainly increase its name recognition.  It also provides a knowledgeable sales force as well as product management and engineering resources that can help Adtran to develop solutions to meet the global market.  This could be very beneficial to the TA5000 product line, as well as its Ultra Broadband Ethernet solution.

Overall, this is a positive for Adtran.  For relatively little upfront investment, Adtran will  nearly double its Broadband Access revenue.  In addition, with its engineering and manufacturing expertise, they are likely to achieve the necessary cost reduction and margin targets in a very short time frame.

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Industry Perspectiv​e: The Digital Divide’s True Size

There has been alot of discussion around a NY Times opinion piece that discusses the New Digital Divide.  I have offered my own opinion via the Calix Blog.  You can read the article here.

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NSN – “We’re goin’ Mobile”

Last week, Nokia Siemens Networks announced a major restructuring of its business and a new strategy focusing on Mobile Broadband and Services.  These plans also include the layoff of nearly 25% of its workforce over the next 18 months as it “adapts, exits or maintains” a number of current businesses.

This is not the first time (and probably not the last) that NSN has restructured.  Back in 2009, the company announced that it would restructure from 5 business units into three: Business Solutions, Network Systems and Global Services, effective January 1, 2010 – this resulted in a workforce reduction of approximately 8% of its then 64,000 employees.   At this time, NSN said it would focus on more product and technology partnerships, such as its joint venture with Juniper Networks. and would also look to strategic acquisition opportunities that would either increase its customers base or augment its product portfolio.  As such, NSN acquired Motorola’s wireless networks business for $1.2 billion in July 2010.  In August 2011, NSN announced the layoff of 1,500 employees that made up the WiMax and GSM divisions from its Motorola acquisition.

History lesson over.  Back to the  present.

According to NSN’s CEO Rajeev Suri, telecommunications infrastructure is no longer an industry that offers strong growth rates – however, there remain pockets of opportunity and NSN will focus on those areas that offer growth.  As such the new strategy will revolve around three areas:  focus, innovation and quality. 

The focus going forward is on providing End to End Mobile Network Infrastructure and Services, with an specific focus on Mobile Broadband.  By eliminating areas with slower growth, NSN will be able to focus more of its €2 billion R&D budget where it will receive the greatest return on its investment and will enable NSN to increase its spending on mobile broadband innovation and double its spending on quality practices and processes.  NSN believes these are areas where they can differentiate from its competition – who will remain burdened by their fixed network assets.

So what happens next?  NSN plans to separate their businesses into four categories:  lead, attach, adapt and exit or maintain:

  1. Mobile Broadband and Customer Experience Management will be the lead businesses, where NSN will maintain or increase investments to ensure a strong market position.
  2. Care and Network Implementation – both part of Global Services – will be attached closely to, and expected to perform in parallel with, the lead businesses.
  3. Managed Services and Consulting and Systems Integration – also both part of Global Services – will be adapted to meet the narrower portfolio and deliver greater profitability.  Optical Networks will also be in this category, with a focus on building a strong base of select customers and leveraging its strong relationship to mobile broadband. 
  4. A wide range of other businesses – such as perfect voice (fixed-line VoIP), broadband access, WiMAX, narrowband, carrier Ethernet, business support systems (BSS), and communications and entertainment solutions (CES) – will be targeted for exit (possibly through divestment) or put in maintenance mode. 

Does any of this really surprise anyone?  Nokia and Siemens Carrier Network Division formed the NSN Joint Venture back in 2006 to better compete with the recently merged Alcatel/Lucent and Ericsson/Marconi.  The JV created a top 3 infrastructure powerhouse that was well poised to leverage opportunities in Fixed-Mobile Convergence.  The problem was that Nokia brought very little to the table, except handsets  – and we all know how that has turned out….leaving the Siemens side responsible for infrastructure solutions.  While technically competent, Siemens was never know for moving quickly or for significant innovation – instead focusing on their engineering expertise, rather than on the direction of the market.  A savvier company would have forced the direction of the market and perhaps FMC would have materialized into a fruitful service for fixed network operators.

Over the last few years, we have watched the leading provider of circuit switched voice infrastructure – divest most of its interest in this area.  At the same time, they acquired a very nimble IPTV middleware provider – Myrio and allowed it to wallow and fall far behind its competitors, but doing just enough work to keep Belgacom and KPN happy. From an access perspective, NSN was once a top 3 provider of DSL equipment – albeit most of it was to Deutsche Telekom, but they still remain a Top 5 player.  NSN was also early in the GPON space, but chose to exit this market in 2008 to focus on VDSL – leaving it open to Huawei, ZTE and ALU in its key markets.

There is no doubt that mobile broadband is the direction of the market, but at some point, just like the fixed market – things will saturate and the cost to run and maintain the network will continue to rise.  There will always be fixed instructure – even if its only purpose is to support the mobile network.  Nonetheless, the days of massive infrastructure investment are likely over and the real focus will be on applications and capabilities that will make networks run more efficiently and provide a better quality of experience for the end user. 

For me personally, I have never really considered NSN an innovator. They have already had so many opportunities to innovate and have failed on each occasion, but LiquidNet was a departure from the norm and signals that perhaps NSN’s compass is finally going in the right direction.

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FCC Broadband Data: 55% of Fixed Subscribers have speeds greater than 6 Mbps

The FCC quietly released its latest broadband subscriber report with details for year end 2010.   What is most compelling, but not surprising, is the fact that subscribers of fixed and mobile broadband were also equal with fixed at 84.5 million and mobile at 84.4 million subscribers. Given the growth rate of mobile broadband (nearly 64% year-over-year), mobile broadband likely surpassed the fixed number during the 1st quarter of 2011. 

The biggest differential between the two (fixed and mobile broadband) remains speed.  At the end of 2010, 72% of mobile broadband subscribers had downstream speeds of 1.5 Mbps or less, versus only 14% of fixed broadband subscribers.  Although there were a portion of mobile broadband subscribers that experienced downstream speeds between 6 Mbps and 10 Mbps,  there were none that exceeded 10 Mbps.  On the other hand, 10 Mbps-25 Mbps represented the largest portion of fixed broadband subscribers at 38%.

Let’s break this down a little bit more for fixed broadband.  The FCC is generous enough to provide detailed information on downstream speeds by type of broadband and here is the distribution:

 

Source: FCC, broadbandtrends

As shown, Cable and FTTH clearly offer the highest downstream speeds.  Cable represents 85% of all subscribers between 10Mbps-25Mbps, while FTTH is 12% and DSL is 3%.  The “sweet-spot” for DSL remains between 1.5 Mbps-6 Mbps, with the majority of subscribers still receiving speeds below 3 Mbps, while cable has continued to move the benchmark higher and higher, with 91% greater than 3Mbps.

 Source: FCC, broadbandtrends

How are upstream speeds doing? It’s improving, but it still has a ways to go and services remains largely asymmetrical.  At the end of 2010, 81% of subscribers had upstream bandwidth below 1.5 Mbps; while 15% were between 1.5 Mbps-3 Mbps, and the remainder were lucky enough to exceed 3 Mbps of upstream.  There was definitely direct correlation between higher downstream bandwidth and higher upstream bandwidth.  I would like to be one of the 41,000 who were receiving symmetrical 100Mbp services.

A few other highlights:

  • DSL is available to 84% of households, while cable is available to 97%
  • 13 States had household penetration of 70% or greater – New Jersey was highest at 78%
  • New York had the highest number of FTTH subscribers, followed by California, Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey.

We still would like to see reporting by type of operator and more details on upstream/downstream – such as by type of broadband.  Nonetheless, the information is helpful to provide a snapshot of broadband availability in the United States.  Now if we could just get them to report it more timely – even if it is only at a high level.

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Verizon Releases its Consumer Technology Trends for 2012

Verizon issued its Top 9 Consumer Technology Trends for 2012.  For your convenience, I have pasted them below with a few additional comments:

#1: Life Without Borders – Technology is allowing the lines between the different aspects of consumers’ lives to merge, giving them a virtual identity and allowing them access to the different parts of their lives on their terms.  Videos and games are no longer found only in the living room, and productivity is no longer bound by the cubicle.

Broadbandtrends Comment: Nothing new here.

#2: We’re All Creative Geniuses – Companies used to offer content, services and products and consumers would either buy in or not.  Now, consumers are an integral part of the creative process, and this co-creation model is quickly becoming the new norm.  That means more piano-playing cat videos, but it will also mean more meaningful user experiences.

Broadbandtrends Comment: Yippee!  We get to look forward to everyone feeling the need to “share” everything, all of the time.  However, the advent of the “app store” has allowed some savvy consumers to develop some really cool applications and I definitely expect this to proliferate.  The next step will be to find a better way to search for the apps that are meaningful to each individual.  Judging by the iTunes App Store – they haven’t figured this out yet.

#3: Democratization of Service – Consumers will be much more involved in evaluating products and services, through the increased use of ratings, reviews, forums and social media commentary are picking up steam in terms of frequency and relevance.

Broadbandtrends Comment:  I am a big fan of ratings.  I think every commerce site should enable consumers to comment and/or rate all products and services. This is an invaluable services, when you are unfamiliar with an item and I believe that it helps businesses optimize their content to better match consumer needs.  Forums have their plus and minuses, as everyone seems to be an expert on a subject and most certainly everyone has a opinion that they like to share.  But if you can weed through the crap – there can be a goldmine of information.  It was through a forum that I found out about Sony TVs’ exchange program for the XBR series that had a known optical block issue!

#4: Future of Work – The technology most people use at home and elsewhere in their personal lives is a lot more advanced than the technology in their offices.  Increasingly, consumers will bring to the office the technology – smartphones, notebooks, etc. – that is simplifying their personal lives.  As a result, consumers will increase their productivity and efficiency at work.  And that means IT departments will continue to become more nimble.

Broadbandtrends Comment: I guess this all depends on your workplace and who is paying for your services. The challenge for most companies is the fact that not everyone is using the latest and greatest computer  – especially in companies with hundreds, if not thousands of employees.  Therefore, software programs and services typically have to work with the least common denominator -  in this case, the computer with the slowest processor.  This results in a slower adoption of newer programs, but I am not sure that is necessarily correlates to lower productivity.  In fact,  I am not exactly sure how bringing my own iPad or iPhone to the office would increase my work productivity – if anything I am likely to be more distracted by these devices than productive.  Just sayin’

#5: More Shelf Space – It’s why you’ll have more shelf space that’s important. Physical belongings, from CDs to books to pictures, are evaporating into the cloud, and even hard drives are slimming down.  For the most part, consumers could care less about jargon or the title of “the cloud.”  They just want out-of-the-box experiences for ones that used to be more complex – and since that’s happening at a faster pace, we’ll continue to see less clutter and more virtual shelves. 

Broadbandtrends Comment:  Call me old-fashioned, but I like the physical nature of a book and a CD.  Although I am a happy iTunes customer for many years, I still regularly burn my music to CDs and maintain a rather large album collection, plus I continue to backup my files to a separate hard drive.  While I like the concept of storing content in the cloud, I also like having access to my content – without the need to have Internet Access – particularly when I am in Europe and it cost $30 a day.

#6: Value of High-IQ Networks – The average American home will go from having about four connected devices to double that by 2014.  Many of the Verizon employees who were polled in an informal survey far exceeded that number. With each new smart device or app, the value of the network that connects and enables them increases exponentially.  The quality of the network will become increasingly relevant and “cool,” which in return results in better user experiences for those who choose wisely.

Broadbandtrends Comment:  It will become increasingly more important for operators to offer quality of service on its broadband networks,  even at an additionaly fee, in order for consumers to continue to have a good user experience.  The proliferation of video viewing devices, whether internet enabled Blu-Ray players, connected TV, game consoles, iPads, etc. will have a major impact on the quality of services asd individuals in the household contend for precious bandwidth. Maybe Frontier has the right idea by marketing a second broadband line to consumers, because unless we all have Fiber-to-the-Home, our home networks are going to become severly stressed.

#7: What’s That You’re Watching? – The old model of home entertainment is dead.  Video is appearing everywhere – from movies on tablets to video conferences (both gabbing teens and on-the-go executives).  New infrastructure, apps and partnerships will be formed to meet the growing demand.

Broadbandtrends Comment:  No doubt consumers are interested in watching their entertainment anywhere and on any device, but more importantly, offering new ways for users to consume their content will play a key role in retention.  We fully expect pay-tv operators to integrate over-the-top content into their services to give consumers the best of both.  Some are already starting to do this, but expect to see this really take off in 2013.

#8: Digital Door Locks – No need to call a locksmith.  We’re talking about securing consumers’ virtual valuables (identity and personal information).  Today’s anything, anywhere access underscores what Internet security experts have been saying for years: Security has to be everyone’s responsibility. Even the basics aren’t cared for in some instances; in fact many people still don’t have a password on their home routers and don’t encrypt important communications.  A proliferation of tools and services will help make consumers more security conscious.

Broadbandtrends Comment:  An absolutely must, especially as consumers move their content to the cloud.  But the challenge will be for businesses to encourage consumers to use these tools and making them simple such as prompting the consumer to update/change their password on a regular basis or require multiple levels of authentication.  I would say less than 5% of the services I use do this or require this type of security.

#9: Easy Green – Who doesn’t want to help save the environment and save money in the process?  Smart energy management is going mainstream, and consumers will increasingly rely on a variety of plug-and-play devices – from smart thermostats to lights that know you’re walking into the room and light up – to monitor and control energy usage.  This will lead to lower energy costs.  A recent government study found people curbed their energy use once they had the means to monitor and adjust their usage.

Broadbandtrends Comment:  Consumers will only conserve energy when there is some type of incentive from their utility for doing so and utilities will only engage in these programs when there is some financial or regulatory benefit.  Similar to broadband usage – consumers have very little clue how they consume power.  While I like the idea of smart thermostats and smart outlets – until the price of these devices comess down significantly – the cost to upgrade will likely outweigh the savings in the near term.  In addition, it is critical that the utility play an active role in any home energy management programs – otherwise the information is just that – information.  The challenge is #1: keeping consumers engaged continuously and #2 reaping some type of economic benefits for their participation. 

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North America Pay TV Sees Positive Growth in 3Q11 – thanks to DIRECTV, AT&T and VZ

Despite the continuing threat of cord-cutting, demand for pay TV services from North American operators rebounded during 3Q11 to see positive net additions of over 250,000.  Cable MSOs continued to take the big hits, losing over 400K, while Telco IPTV and Satellite picked up the slack during the quarter. Cable represents 59% of the market, followed by Satellite at 33% and Telco at 8%.

Net additions by video type are shown below. As shown, Telco IPTV accounted for the largest portion at 444k, followed by Satellite at 220k, while Cable remains in negative territory.

Comcast remains the largest Pay TV operator in North America with 22.36M subscribers, followed by DIRECTV with 19.76M.  During 3Q11, DIRECTV experienced the largest net additions at 327,000 due largely to a free promotion of its NFL Sunday Ticket package.  Besides DIRECTV, most of the positive growth was associated with Telcos, but there were a handful of Cable MSOs with positive growth -including Videotron at 34k, and Rogers at 9k.

From a year-over-year perspective, AT&T leads with 843,000 net adds, followed by DIRECTV at 826,000 and Verizon at 689,000.  Comcast leads the decline at -577,000, followed by TWC (-442,000) and DISH at -344,000.

At this stage, cord-cutting is having minimal impact on Pay-TV subscriptions, but it is important to note that some operators reported a decline in video ARPU this quarter – this is a key indicator to watch going forward and an area that broadbandtrends will be following closely in the coming quarters.

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Demand for North America Broadband Flat in 3Q11

It’s both good news and bad news:  demand for broadband in North America was flat during 3Q11, growing 1% to reach 98.5M, with net additions nearing 1 million.  However, net additions are down almost 25% from the same period last year.  Historically, 3Q is always a banner quarter where demand for services rebound from the lulls of 2Q, when college students suspend or cancel subscriptions and people tend to move. 

But this year it is different.  Broadband penetration has reached 73% of households in the U.S. and nearly 80% of households in Canada.  The dismal housing climate has certainly had an impact on demand, as new housing starts remain at historic lows and home sales remain muted as people stay put.  In addition, faster mobile broadband speeds combined with smart phones, have probably siphoned off a small percentage of fixed subscribers, but this is unlikely to have significant impact – due to bandwidth consumption caps that can be prohibitively expensive.

So how did 3Q11 shape up?  There remain a handful of operators that have not reported, but the majority of results are in and here are the highlights:

  • Cable operators accounted for 85% of total net additions, compared to 15% for Telcos (both DSL and FTTH)
  • FTTH represented 85% of total Telco net additions
  • FTTH represented 5.6 million fixed broadband subscriptions, with Verizon representing 82% of total
  • Telco net additions (both DSL & FTTH)  declined 55% from 2Q11, while Cable additions increased by 53%
  • DSL net additions declined by 87% quarter-over-quarter

Market Share for 3Q11 is shown below:

As shown, Comcast remains the market leader with 18% share, followed by AT&T.  For 3Q11, Comcast added 27% (261k) of all broadband net additions.  The second largest contributor was Time Warner Cable (105k).  On the Telco side, CenturyLink added the most at 57K. AT&T had only 3K net additions to its broadband service – as most U-verse high speed additions where simply substitution of lower-speed DSL, rather than new subscribers.

There are just over 88M fixed broadband subscribers in the U.S. and 10.5M in Canada at the end of 3Q11.

We will take a look at how video operators fared next week.

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