FTTH to represent nearly 50% of Global Fixed Broadband Subscribers by 2022

Broadbandtrends recently published its Global Market Outlook Report for Fixed Broadband Subscribers (2016-2022).

This report provides details on fixed broadband subscribers with the following segmentation:

  1. By Region (Asia Pacific, CALA, EMEA and North America)

  2. By Technology Type (DSL, FTTH, Cable, Other)

  3. Penetration of Households by Region

  4. Broadband subscribers by Speed Tier

  5. 0-10Mbps

  6. 10-25Mbps

  7. 25-100Mbps

  8. 100-500Mbps

  9. 500-1Gbps

  10. 1Gbps +

Some highlights from the report include the following:

  1. Global fixed broadband subscribers are expected to grow from 776 million at the end of 2016 to 859 million by the end of 2022

  2. Global penetration of households is expected to flatten out by 2018 – holding at slightly over 42 percent

  3. FTTH subscribers will account for nearly half of all fixed broadband subscribers by 2022

DSL is rapidly losing its’ position as the dominant broadband technology during the forecast period, driven by the aggressive FTTH deployments within both Asia Pacific and North America.  FTTH subscribers are expected to overtake DSL subscribers during the 2017 timeframe. 

bbsubs_type

A quick clarification on what we consider FTTH. It is our belief that FTTH subscribers must be end-to-end fiber with termination at the premise.  Therefore, this would not include FTTN or FTTC architectures that include an xDSL (or G.fast) connection to the customer premise.  In many countries a number of operators deploy a  FTTB + LAN architecture, utilizing a PON interface on the network side and Ethernet ports on the end-user side.  As such, we are now including this type of subscriber in our FTTH subscriber counts to more closely align with industry practices.

For deployments that are FTTB + xDSL, typically deployed in multi-dwelling units, they will continue to be included in our DSL subscriber counts. Although there is great debate regarding what percentage of Japan FTTH is actually end to end FTTH, in this case, a part of our forecast foundation, we utilize data provided by both the operators as well as verified by the Ministry of Communications.

Fixed Broadband Speeds

Broadband speeds are also expected to rise dramatically with nearly 34 percent of subscribers receiving speeds of 100 Mbps or greater by 2022, up from 6 percent in 2016.  Despite an industry push towards Gigabit speeds; they are only expected to contribute 2 percent of total subscribers by 2022, with the strongest growth found in 500Mbps-1Gbps segment.

bbsubs_speed

The forecast foundation for Broadbandtrends Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Market Outlook Report is built using country specific data provided by the ITU and other sources.  This includes the following statistics: population, housing, access lines (residential and business), PC Penetration, current internet and broadband subscriptions and GDP data.

The proportion of Internet subscribers that will migrate to broadband access is then forecast using a model which contains three ranges: high-range, most likely, and low-range. Penetration rates are calculated for each region based on typical broadband tariffs, and assumptions are made for when these penetration levels are likely to be reached. The proportion of the broadband access market share of the various access technologies is also modeled based on coverage, competitive advantage, and service provider strategies.

Demand for broadband access is highly price-sensitive. The penetration rates referred to above are modeled using an estimation of price elasticity of demand in each region.

Sanity checks are made based on quarterly subscriber data, historical growth rates, availability, service provider earnings reports and country specific Telecommunications regulator reports.

For additional information, please download the Executive Summary and Table of contents for additional information (bbt_marketoutlook_globalfixedbb_toc_171010_jan2017)

This 27-page report contains (29) Figures and (1) Table and includes a detailed excel spreadsheet.  It is included as part of Broadbandtrends Continuous Information Service, or is available on a stand-alone basis for $1695(USD).

For more information about our services, or to order this report, please contact us at 540.725.9774 or via email at sales@broadbandtrends.com.  Additionally this report may be purchased online at http://www.broadbandtrends.com

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